Sanctions Hub
of Excellence

Tracking Russian oil shipments carried by the shadow fleet, tracking Russian oil shipments carried by the shadow fleet, including cargo destinations, vessel ownership, and changes in fleet composition.

Analyzes Russia’s exports of crude oil and petroleum products, which are critical for macroeconomic stability and the budget.

The August Russia Chartbook by KSE Institute examines the continued decline in Russia’s oil export earnings amid lower export volumes, the growing federal budget deficit, and increasingly constrained financing options. At the same time, the macroeconomic outlook remains fragile amid rising inflation expectations and broader economic pressures.

An analytical product that tracks Russia’s ability to import goods restricted under the sanctions coalition’s export controls.

The study examines how a new wave of Russian mobilization could affect the labor market and the wages of workers who remain in the civilian economy. Using vacancy data, regional military payments, and casualty records, it assesses the military’s competition for low-skill labor, the wage effects of reduced labor supply, and the loss of income if contract recruitment is replaced by compulsory mobilization. The study finds that wage gains from labor scarcity would likely be far smaller than the loss of contract-related military payments.

The study assesses Russia’s capacity to continue financing its war against Ukraine amid a widening federal budget deficit, depleted fiscal buffers, and growing pressure on the banking system. It examines the main financing channels — the National Wealth Fund, Treasury cash balances, and domestic borrowing — as well as future financing scenarios and measures to further constrain Russia’s war-financing capacity.